German Manufacturing Holds Up Despite Euro Weakness

German manufacturing shows no weakness, despite European debt markets plaguing local manufacturing activity.

Here’s a quick look of the numbers:

March uptick – Manufacturing orders rose 2.2% in March, according to the German Economic Ministry. Analysts forecasts predicted a minute .5% increase in orders.

Upward revisions – February orders were revised up to .6% from .3% when originally reported. Upward revisions in orders are expected, as initial reports are estimates, which are refined over time.

Domestic improvement – Germany recorded year-over-year improvement of 1.3% in domestic orders for manufactured goods in March.

Euro stagnation – Foreign manufacturing orders for German goods inside the Eurozone remained the same year-over-year. No growth in this terrible economic slump.

International Ex-Euro Explosion – Excluding the Eurozone, orders internationally increased at a 4.8% clip. Perhaps the weak Euro is finally playing into improved international shipments for European firms.

BOJ Expected to Fight Stronger Yen

Investors expect that the Bank of Japan will act to fight a rising Yen. The Japanese Yen now trades near five-year highs, a valuation which creates additional risk to a weak Japanese economy only one year out from a massive earthquake and devastating Tsunami.

A five-year chart of the JPY against the US Dollar shows the deflationary forces fighting the Bank of Japan’s quest to jump start economic growth:

BOJ Buys Anything

The Bank of Japan has been fighting deflation for nearly twenty years. The central bank first pushed rates to new record low territory in 1994, only to keep rates near zero for the better part of two decades. Despite drastic action undertaken well before central banks responded to the Global Financial Meltdown with zero interest rate policy, Japan’s economy has never truly recovered.

The Bank of Japan has one of the most liberal economic policies in all of the world. The bank has the ability to purchase:

  1. Government securities and debt obligations
  2. Privately-owned businesses and public stock
  3. Stock futures and equity derivatives

The US Federal Reserve has no authority to purchase public stock to interject liquidity into the markets, nor does the European Central Bank. This authority is a stand-out globally, a true reflection of the difficult position Japan finds to be consistent with persistent deflation. The ECB’s LTRO or the Fed’s QE are far less involved in tangling public and private financial matters.

Traders Bet on Easing

Traders have increased speculative positions to bet on further yen weakness. The latest Commitment of Traders report indicates that traders, large and small, are confident in further central bank action to defeat the Yen’s rise.

Here’s a chart of the positions reported in the Commitment of Traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (Negative numbers indicate traders are short the currency.)

JPY commitment of traders

Politically, the central bank has plenty of incentive for future action. The country’s manufacturing base of specialty goods and luxury products is uncompetitive globally on Yen strength. Additionally, the country’s largest automakers which shut their doors following the massive 2011 Tsunami are reopening for business in a global market. Japanese exports are the economy’s strength, and further Yen strength would threaten any recovery.

Japanese Inflation 2012, Japanese Inflation Rate

The Bank of Japan is expected to stay the course on a plan to hold inflation to 1% per year. The Japanese inflation rate spent a full year in the red in 2010, before modest inflation propelled by easing put the BOJ closer to its goal of 1% inflation per year.

Traders expect the Bank of Japan to initiate another round of bond buying worth as much as 10 trillion Yen, or roughly $120 billion US dollars.

LTRO Explained

LTRO, LTRO from the ECBLong-term refinancing operations are back! Historically, central banks have used a long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) as a way to allow banks to borrow against their assets during credit crises.

In a LTRO transaction, a central bank makes short-term, asset-backed loans to commercial banks. For example, a European bank may agree to a LTRO with the ECB in which it gives the ECB collateral in the form of securities and receives cash as a loan from the ECB.

How LTROs Affect Sentiment

Long-term refinancing operations have become a barometer for banking health. We know that the European Central Bank, for example, has a LTRO in place for member nations and banks. Thus, based on the level of borrowing from the European Central Bank’s LTRO, we can determine how difficult or easy it is for banks to get credit.

  • If banks are borrowing a lot of money from the LTRO, the banks obviously cannot find credit less expensive (or in ample quantities) in other markets.
  • If banks do not borrow a lot of money from the LTRO, then banks are either well-capitalized, or they have found other ways to finance their immediate needs.

European LTRO

The European Central Bank currently has an open LTRO in place for member banks in nations using the Euro. The LTRO program was first opened in December 2011, with additional funding made available in March 2012.

So far, the biggest users of the long-term refinancing operation have been Spanish banks. MarketWatch reports that Spanish banks have borrowed roughly 40% of all LTRO capital made available in the March period.

This shows weakness on behalf of Spanish banks, many of which are heavily invested in Spanish government securities. The same articles notes that it is believed Spanish banks collected billions of euros in low-interest LTRO loans from the Eurozone while increasing their holdings of Spanish government debt. Such a move would increase the banking system’s risk to a default by the Spanish government on its debt issues.

In the initial round of borrowing in December 2011, the ECB loaned 489 billion euros to 523 banking institutions. The second round in March came in much larger to the tune of 529.5 billion euros loaned to 800 different banks.

Both rounds of LTRO easing were issued in loans with 3-year maturities and an annual interest rate of 1%.

LTRO vs. Quantitative Easing

LTRO is different from quantitative easing or QE in that the capital from LTRO flows directly to banks. In a Long-term refinancing operation, the central bank loans to commercial banks, which use the funds to make loans to individuals and governments. In quantitative easing programs such as those enacted by the Federal Reserve, the central bank buys government debt on the open market to drive down rates.

So, in effect, LTRO makes capital available directly to banks at a rate often lower than the market rate of interest. Quantitative easing makes capital available to the government directly, and has the greatest effect on the public rate of interest.

In either case, both LTRO and QE programs by central banks inflate currency stockpiles and ultimately drive down the value of individual currencies.

Can the US Shake Global Economic Slump?

On top of every traders’ mind is whether or not the United States can weather an economic storm erupting in Europe.

It may just be that the US real estate collapse that pushed the world into recession may lift it back out. Recently, positive economic data coming out of the US has managed to remove concerns about Europe’s growing debt concerns.

New Carry Trade

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Should the Euro Split into Two Currencies?

Euro split, new Euro, new European currencyCatherine Dobbs won a recent economics contest by offering up her own solution to the Eurozone mess: splitting the continent’s sole currency into two pieces.

The suggestion was the NEWNEY, comprised of the New Euro White and the New Euro Yolk. The “yolk” would be backed by the weaker nations in the Eurozone, including Portugal, Greece, and perhaps Spain or Italy. The “white” part of the mix would be the currency for fiscally stronger European nations like France, Germany, and Finland.

Under the proposal, the current Euro would be split in two. A collection of 1000 euros would be exchanged for 700 new “white euros” backed by the stronger countries, with 300 new “yolk euros” backed by the weaker nations.

Why Suggest this Alternative?

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Purchasing Managers Index Explained

The Purchasing Managers Index is one of the best leading economic indicators. Astute traders recognize the value of the PMI report in the fundamental analysis of global currencies.

How it Works

The Purchasing Managers Index asks a panel of 400 different purchasing managers five questions relating to the fundamentals driving their business. In particular, purchasing managers are asked to provide their sentiment, or how they feel, about five main categories including:

  1. Current levels of production
  2. New orders from customers for their goods
  3. Pace of supplier deliveries
  4. Current inventories
  5. Employment within the industry

Purchasing managers in the panel then provide one of three answers. Managers indicate that there was an improvement, no change, or a deterioration from the previous month in each of the categories.

How the Purchasing Manager’s Index is Calculated Read more »

A Floating Renminbi vs. Australian Dollar

Chinese Renminbi could FloatThe Chinese government hinted that it may extend the trading band for its currency, the Chinese Renminbi, known also as the Chinese Yuan. Making the trading band larger would allow for the Chinese currency to rise and fall more rapidly than at present, as the central bank would be less active in managing its value on the world currency markets.

Investors should wonder what these changes might bring for the Renminbi, and also the leading trade partners with China.

Here are a few outcomes of a wider trading range: Read more »

Inflation Report: Why Currencies are “Stuck”

forex, inflation, currency depreciationEveryone is talking about inflation. Central banks have spent trillions of dollars in their domestic currencies to prop up the economy. Most world banks have their interest rates lower than anyone would have ever thought possible.

Yet, the world economy has not yet responded. Expected inflation has not yet rolled through like a tidal wave.

So where has all the inflation gone?

American & European Inflation

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